Tuesday, July 20, 2021

Is 3rd Wave To Hit India?

When will 3rd wave of covid hit India?

India has freshly reported 38,164 cases of covid in last 24 hours. And, the active cases of covid in india are around 4,21,665 . Yet, only 40 crore of doses of vaccine has only been given to 140 crore population. So, INDIA is still far from achieving HERD Immunity. Hence, the risk of 3rd wave likely to hit INDIA has increased. THOUGH the recovery rate of our country increased to 97.32% . The INDIAN Government has stated in a press release that the upcoming 2-4 months are crucial for India.



The World Health Organization this week has ANNOUNCED the alarm bells ringing. They said that the world is at the very advanced stages of the third wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. This wave is mostly being driven by the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, first reported in India. WHO's warning is a red flag for India as well, the Union health ministry has said that the Covid-19 cases in India has slowed down. Still situation in state like Maharastra , kerela and parts of Northeast has seen rise in cases of covid cases and situation is seen worsen in these states.

How severe the 3rd wave will?

The third wave may hit by August-end, but it will be of less intensity than the second wave said by a Dr Samiran Panda (head of the division of epidemiology and communicable diseases at the ICMR) . He also said that the third wave is not inevitable. AS, If the virus doesn't mutate to lead to more transmissibility, the situation will be similar to the first wave AND if the virus mutates further, then the situation could be worse.

HOWEVER AIIMS director Dr Randeep Guleria has said that “There are many possibilities in which the third wave if it comes, may shape up. If an immuno-escape variant of the virus emerges and all restrictions are eased, then the third wave can be more severe than the second wave”. Waning immunity, the emergence of a more transmissible variant, and lockdown relaxations will decide the third wave.

As a conclusion of statement "Without vaccinations getting ramped up and when restrictions are eased, there will be a chance of the third wave,"

Key Factors on which 3rd wave depends?

Mainly three major factors will be responsible for the 3rd wave:-

  • Vaccination drive should be speed up. As the no of people will get their vaccine , huge group of population will get immune at the time of 3rd wave.
  • 3rd wave will also be depend on what proportion of population was infected at the time of 2nd wave. AS, "If a large proportion is infected then in the next wave people can develop a common cold-like illness but may not develop a serious or fatal illness," Dr Arora said.
  • COVID 3RD WAVE is directly propotional to strict adherence to covid protocol and rules which include including wearing of the masks, maintaining physical distance, will protect from any variant, a point that experts have been emphasising.


Dr Paul, who is also a key member of the centre's Covid task force stated that

"In a mood of recreation at tourist spots, there is particularly risk of Covid. Infection has always spread in crowded places faster. Tourism should be there, but if we are irresponsible and don't follow Covid-appropriate behaviour, the virus can spread faster,"

Conclusion

In short apart from vaccination social distancing can be the only way to prevent from covid 3rd wave. These day tourist destination in LEH LADHAK, SHIMLA, MANALI, MUSSORRIE and other parts of countries can be seen with crowded tourists. And these more huge incidents will increase the spread of covid and will make situation more vernerable

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